Monday, September 1st, 2025
A new white paper from ALICE member sennder offers one of the most comprehensive assessments to date of the economics behind electric heavy-duty trucks. Drawing from over 1.3 million cost scenarios, the analysis delivers a clear message: by 2030, battery-electric trucks will outperform diesel trucks on cost across Europe- without the need for subsidies.
This finding marks a critical shift in the decarbonisation of long-haul freight. For years, the transition to electric road freight was seen as desirable but financially uncertain. sennder’s study now provides robust evidence that this transition will be driven not just by regulation, but by cost-efficiency and market logic. According to the company’s projections, Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) parity will be achieved in key EU corridors by the late 2020s, with electric trucks becoming significantly more cost-effective than diesel by the start of the next decade.
The study takes a bottom-up approach, analysing operational data across ten different European routes. By comparing diesel and battery-electric vehicle (BEV) performance on metrics such as energy costs, driver utilisation, vehicle availability, and infrastructure access, it offers a realistic picture of the transition landscape. Importantly, the paper does not rely on idealised assumptions or heavy public subsidies. Instead, it assumes modest battery price reductions, gradual infrastructure rollout, and continued evolution of energy markets.
Among the most compelling findings is that, for some use cases, BEVs may already be competitive with diesel when deployed strategically. This includes routes with overnight depot charging, fixed schedules, and predictable return-to-base operations- conditions that apply to a growing share of freight transport in Europe. Additionally, the report stresses that early electrification is not just feasible but economically rational for certain lanes and operational models.
The implications for the wider logistics industry are far-reaching. Electrification of long-haul transport will not only lower emissions but also reduce dependence on volatile fossil fuel markets, improve vehicle efficiency, and create new value through digital integration and route optimisation. However, the transition is not without challenges. The study highlights the need for reliable charging infrastructure, efficient energy contracts, and supportive regulatory frameworks. Long-term partnerships between shippers, carriers, energy providers, and policymakers will be essential to unlocking the full potential of electric freight.
As a leading digital freight forwarder, sennder positions itself not only as a service provider but as a catalyst for industry-wide change. By sharing its insights and modelling methodology openly, the company aims to support evidence-based policymaking and help logistics stakeholders make informed investment decisions.
ALICE welcomes this contribution to the knowledge base around sustainable road freight. The findings reinforce our shared belief that data-driven innovation, industry collaboration, and forward-looking regulation are central to achieving Europe’s climate goals, and that the transformation of freight is already well underway.
It complements the current running projects ZEFES, FLEXMCS and MACBETH as well as the future project result of the new 2ZERO partnership call on Strategies, tools and concepts for optimised road Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) long-haul logistics use cases. We invite you to join us and in particular the ALICE efficient and low emissions assets and energy group.
📥 Download the full white paper by sennder:
GUIDE TO YOUR SUSTAINABLE SUPPLY CHAIN