Climate logistics: extending the horizon beyond decarbonisation

Insights from Professor Alan McKinnon’s keynote speech at the IKIGAI kick-off meeting 

At the IKIGAI kick-off meeting, Professor Alan McKinnon from Kühne Logistics University, explored the multifaceted role of logistics in managing the climate crisis in a compelling keynote. Titled “Climate Logistics: extending the research and planning frontier beyond decarbonisation,” his presentation provided a timely and data-rich overview of how logistics systems should evolve to support global climate objectives. 

Confronting the climate emergency 

Professor McKinnon began with a striking update on climate science. Atmospheric CO₂ levels have surged from 358 parts per million in 1994 to 427 today, and global average temperatures are rising at an accelerating pace. The remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C is likely to be exhausted within the next four years. Despite growing political and industrial resistance, he emphasised the importance of logistics in climate mitigation and adaptation. 

Logistics – more than just a source of emissions 

Although traditionally viewed as a significant emitter, accounting for around 12% of energy-related CO₂ emissions, logistics is also positioned to act as: 

• Decarboniser. Logistics systems themselves are the subject of decarbonisation strategies that apply the five key levers: limiting freight demand growth, increasing use of rail and waterborne transport, optimising logistics assets utilisation, improving energy efficiency, and switching to low-carbon energy. These strategies form the basis of the ALICE Zero Emissions Logistics 2050 Roadmap. 
• Victim. Logistics systems are highly vulnerable to climate-induced disruptions. Extreme weather events and their geophysical impacts, such as flash floods and wild fires, threaten the resilience and continuity of transport networks, making adaptation increasingly urgent. 
• Adaptor. Although the adaptation of transport infrastructure has received significant attention, the adaptation of logistics systems and supply chains remains under-researched. Enhancing system-wide climate resilience requires new operational strategies and asset reconfigurations, as well as investment in infrastructural climate-proofing.  
• Facilitator. Logistics enables the circular economy and the transition to renewable energy. It facilitates recycling, reverse logistics, and decentralised energy systems. Efficient and low-carbon logistics are prerequisites for closing material loops and scaling renewable infrastructure. 
• Rescuer. The demand for humanitarian logistics in response to climate-related disasters is rapidly increasing. Logistics operations support emergency responses, aid distribution, and rebuilding efforts in affected regions, playing a vital role in saving lives and restoring services. 
• Remover. Net Zero can no longer be achieved solely by cutting emissions.  It will also require substantial removal, or ‘sequestration’, of CO2 already in the atmosphere, using a combination of nature-based or engineered processes. All of these processes will rely heavily on logistics to create a carbon capture and storage infrastructure, move the necessary biomass, chemicals and equipment and permanently store most of the captured CO2. 
• Geo-engineer. If mitigation and sequestration efforts prove in adequate, the last resort may be solar radiation management, injecting aerosols into the upper atmosphere to reduce temperatures at ground level. Conducting this at a planetary level would have major logistical implications. While this geo-engineering is still speculative and controversial, its potential logistical requirements need to be assessed.  
• Beneficiary. Logistics is likely to benefit from new business opportunities driven by climate action. For instance, the construction of renewable energy systems, the adaptation of our built environment to climate change and the up scaling of carbon capture and storage will greatly increase demand for logistical services. 

Progress on decarbonisation: mixed signals 

Professor McKinnon provided a sobering assessment of Europe’s progress towards logistics decarbonisation: 

• Freight volume. EU freight tonne-kilometres are projected to increase by 27% this decade, growth closely linked to GDP but likely to be reinforced by reshoring and regional cohesion policies. 
• Modal shift. Despite decades of initiatives, road freight’s dominance reached a record high in 2023. Forecasts still suggest that rail’s modal share will remain below 20% by 2040. 
• Asset utilisation. Empty running in road freight has changed little over the past decade. Despite the application of digital tools and supply chain collaboration efforts, asset sharing remains limited. 
• Energy efficiency. Progress has been made, especially in trucking, but fleet turnover remains slow, with full renewal taking up to 18 years at current rates. 
• Low-carbon energy transition. Adoption of alternative fuels is constrained by infrastructure, vehicle availability, and operational limitations. Book and claim systems offer a promising way to speed up the process. 

Logistics and circular economy 

Strategies for the circular economy, particularly those involving recycling and reverse logistics, rely heavily on reconfigured logistics networks. The global level of economic circularity has fallen from 9.1% in 2018 to 6.9% in 2025. This has major implications for climate change as 70% of greenhouse gas emissions are linked to material handling and use. Greater effort is required to overcome numerous barriers to the development of reverse logistics systems. 

Climate adaptation and the logistics blind spot 

Climate adaptation planning has paid minimal attention to logistics. As McKinnon noted, the IPCC’s 2023 report barely mentioned logistics across its 3,000-plus pages. Nevertheless, the material requirements for climate adaptation, such as port protection against sea-level rise, will demand substantial logistical support. For example, an estimated 83 million cubic metres of material would be needed to protect just 36 European ports against a 2-metre sea-level rise. 

Supporting the energy transition 

The shift to renewable energy requires substantial logistical support. Wind and solar installations require substantially more materials and occupy larger geographic areas than the equivalent fossil fuel infrastructure. The EU estimates that, by 2030, 60 million tonnes of structural materials will be required for wind turbines alone, necessitating extensive logistics operations across Europe. Once this renewable energy infrastructure is in place, there will, of course, be a sharp drop in fossil fuel traffic. 

Role of logistics in carbon removal 

Reaching net zero in the EU by 2050 will require the annual removal of between 390 and 1,165 million tonnes of CO₂. Logistics will underpin the entire carbon removal value chain, from manufacturing equipment and supplying inputs to transporting and storing CO₂. Plans for a 15-19,000 km CO2 pipeline network for the EU demonstrate the scale of this endeavour. 

Professor McKinnon concluded with a provocative question: should climate logistics activities (e.g. those that support adaptation, sequestration and the energy transition) receive special regulatory dispensation or carbon credits? Given their essential role, exempting these activities from near-term net zero targets is a proposal that deserves serious consideration. 

Professor McKinnon’s keynote speech offered a critical rethinking of the position of logistics within climate policy. It calls on stakeholders from industry, research and governance to expand the scope of logistics innovation. As ALICE continues to drive collaborative initiatives aimed at achieving zero-emission logistics, integrating climate logistics into EU research agendas and investment frameworks will be essential. 

For further context, see his overview article in Green Miles, and this recent peer-reviewed commentary on climate logistics.